🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Profited $436K from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was made public, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of American actions. Sudden Shift in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been apprehended. A particular user, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Market statistics shows that traders estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the market's assessment had climbed to over 10% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the first hours of Saturday, pointing to a rapid movement in betting activity right before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on non-public details," commented an industry expert. A small number of other individuals also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Political Attention Grows Politicians are growing concerned. A new rule put forward on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Market Background Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."